The March index is now available! The University of Oregon Index of Economic Indicators™ dropped sharply in March, fall­ing 0.7 percent to 101.9 (1997=100). Only two indicators—the interest rate spread and the weight-distance tax collected—im­proved. Remaining indicators held roughly steady or deteriorated. The index continues to decline at a rate consistent with weak economic growth and a high possibility of recession. Still, even if a technical recession is avoided, continued strains on household finances suggest a prolonged period of economic weakness. Click here for the full report...

 

University of Oregon Index of Economic Indicators™

Frequently Asked Questions

 

 

 

What is the University of Oregon Index of Economic Indicators?

The index summarizes business activity in Oregon through a monthly analysis and measure of eight key economic indicators.

Who should use the UO Index of Economic Indicators?

The index is intended for business owners and policy makers. It converts eight complex and independent bits of information into a single variable, presenting a clear picture of Oregon's business activity. This creates a convenient gauge of the economy that can be used to guide business decisions and policy-making.

How does the UO Index of Economic Indictors differ from other economic information?

The index brings an academic analysis of the economy to policy makers and Oregon's business community, providing a new set of resources that will help them plan more effectively.

What economic measures are used for the UO Index of Economic Indicators?

The variables used for the index measure the Oregon labor market, the Oregon construction industry, and Oregon shipping activity, as well as national consumer confidence, manufacturing orders, and financial market conditions. They are selected for their relevance to current business activity and also the reliability of accurate, monthly information. They are: The monthly indicators used are:

• Oregon initial unemployment claims, seasonally adjusted
• Oregon residential building permits, seasonally adjusted
• "Help wanted" ad volume in The Oregonian newspaper, seasonally adjusted
• Oregon's weight-mile tax, in thousands of dollars, seasonally adjusted
• Oregon total non-farm payrolls, in thousands of dollars, seasonally adjusted
• The University of Michigan U.S. Consumer Confidence rating
• Real manufacturer's new orders for non-defense, non-aircraft goods, in thousands of dollars, seasonally adjusted
• Interest rate spread between 10-year Treasury bonds less the federal funds rate

Who prepares the UO Index?

Tim Duy, Ph.D., an economist and director of the Oregon Economic Forum, prepares the index. Before joining the UO faculty, he worked as an economist with the U.S. Treasury Department, analyzing U.S. trade issues, and as a private consultant in Washington, D.C., providing political and economic advice to financial institutions.

How was the accuracy of the UO Index validated?

Duy tested the accuracy of the index by comparing results to historical economic performance back to 1995, applying the same widely accepted and proven methodology used by The Conference Board to compute the U.S. Leading Index. (The Conference Board is a nonprofit organization that creates and disseminates knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance.) Each report is peer-reviewed to assure sound conclusions.

How frequently will the UO Index of Economic Indicators report be issued?

The UO Index will be published every month.

How current is the information?

The index is based on the most recently available data and reflects business activity that occurred in the period ending approximately six weeks prior to the report issue date. Each index report is peer-reviewed to assure sound conclusions.

Why is the University of Oregon producing this index?

The index is part of the Oregon Economic Forum, an on-going series of initiatives begun in 2004 to showcase research by UO Department of Economics faculty members, and to open a dialogue with business owners and policy makers on important economic issues. The Oregon Economic Forum is a project of the UO College of Arts and Sciences and Department of Economics.

How can I receive the UO Index of Economic Indicators every month?

The UO Index of Economic Indicators reports will be posted each month at http://econforum.uoregon.edu.